AGI之后，ASI会如何到来？
多数人还在讨论AGI何时到来，这篇报告已经往前看了一步：AGI之后，AI会如何继续进化成超级智能（ASI）？它给出了四条路径：把AGI继续做大、换一套新范式、让AI自己改进自己、以及让大量AI组成集体涌现出更高智能。报告诚实地说，这些路径上都有瓶颈，但不确定瓶颈有多大——可能微不足道，也可能直接卡住。一个反直觉的点是：如果AI进步持续加速，我们可能不会经历“AGI降临”这一个转折点，而是迎来一连串由AI驱动的科技突破，社会被反复重塑。这不是你明天能用上的东西，但它帮你提前看清：未来十年，真正值得关注的不是AGI本身，而是它之后那条路怎么走。
📄 原文摘要(英文)
Over the last decade, building human-level artificial general intelligence has moved from far-fetched speculation to being a concrete next-decade target for many of the largest AI organisations. Achieving this goal would have profound and far-reaching impacts on human society, which raises many complex questions for the decade ahead. This report investigates how AI itself might continue to develop in a post-AGI world along the continuum of machine intelligence. The endpoint of this continuum, Universal AI, is theoretically well understood, which provides some formal grounding for the main focus of this report: the transition from human-level AGI to artificial general superintelligence, which, intuitively, can be understood as a system that is more intelligent and cognitively capable than large organisations of humans. After characterizing ASI, the report discusses four potential pathways from AGI to ASI: scaling AGI, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi-agent collectives. The report then discusses possible frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways. Determining whether the impact of these frictions will be negligible or substantial raises a number of concrete open research questions. Due to large uncertainties for predicting ASI progress, it cannot be ruled out that AI progress might continue to accelerate over the next years. This could imply that the image of a single transformative step change, caused by the introduction of human-level AGI into our society, could be inaccurate. More apt might be the prospect of a series of transformative societal changes caused by AI-enabled progress and breakthroughs across many areas of science and technology. Preparing for this prospect requires a massively interdisciplinary endeavour of global scope and interest.